19 Apr 2020

Indian Economy after Covid 19: Whether will survive or tumble?


Since start of the primary threat of Corona Virus in early November 2019 till today 17/04/2020, its almost 5 months. The twists and turns in the story so far reminds me story of "Great Indian Emperor - Parikshit and Serpant Takshak". This shows how even merger things can go otherwise and that's either way, mind it. Its law of nature that each smooth transaction starts with small things, whether its small start up, birth of a child, creation of a nation or civilization etc. Any thing you take, it starts with megerity. The destructive things come roaring viz. a storm, a flood, an earth quake.
From a single case to crossing 2 millions limit it seems enormous and it is engulfing the humanity day by day. Neither have's nor have not's are having any scope in front of this pandemic. All the resources and infrastructure seems very dormant while competing with this deadly virus. Even greatest of the nations have found it very difficult to counter and over come it. Only a collective and collaborative action with firmness to save the humanity may help us stand against this disorder. 

May be we may have to make a lot of sacrifices at all the levels. At individual level we may have to sacrifice our ego, pride, money, resources and may have to come together with higher social responsibilities of caring and sharing, seeking peace and harmony and spreading humanity every where. In a way we will have to follow the esthetic sense of society believed by Indians -
  
अयं निजः परो वेति गणना लघु चेतसाम् | उदारचरितानां तु वसुधैव कुटुम्बकम् |

A lot of people are doubting that the most of economies of world will show negative performance. Even IMF has predicted that all the other world economies except India and China will go negative for 2020. 

Certainly this is going to impact a lot to the economy. Things have come to stand still for almost a month and it is not going to ease out soon. The supply and demand are too far from each other and the market is depleting. But there are several factors which are in favor of Indian Economy which will help India stand strong for all kind of odds.

Huge Population: India Consists of a huge population of 135 crore people. The thought of social distancing is prohibiting and restricting global business but we our self have a huge untapped market having ample scope. Such a huge market in single geographical unit is a boon for us as once every thing normalizes consumption will certainly rise.

Demographics of Population: Indian population is very young. Average age of Indian population is around 30 yrs. This indicates potential of productivity. At the same time earning potential, spending / consuming potential, consumer behavior also gets affected by the kind of people we have. All these parameters show positivity when the population is younger.

Big Base: Although we have very limited per capita income but our Economy is one of world's five largest economies. Our Economy is quite robust and has capacity have many small-big challenges all together. Many kind of booms and bursts have been since globalization in 1991, but we have surpassed all of them and stood strong. Our continuous up gradation in ranks in economic stature itself narrates the whole story of economic strength of India.

Timely Revamping Guidelines of RBI: RBI has analyzed the situation and releases guidelines to public and privates sector banks which will provide extended line of credit and financial easing to perform economic activities. This is certainly a surety of availability of necessary working capital which is already stuck up with clients and vendors in some or other way. This financial easing will certainly play a great role in reviving the economy.

Good Signs for Pharma and Steel Sector: The Pharma sector has already started showing hopes. Our Scientists and renowned industries like Cadila, Cipla, Ranbaxy, Sunpharma, Torrent, Dr. Reddys, Lupin, Alembic etc. to name a few are experts and leading the world in this situation. Requirement of ventilators has already attracted big players like Maruti and Mahindra and set them in action. Indian railways is also focusing on the same. We are one of the biggest steel producers in the world.

Steady Retail and Consumable Sector: The demand of normal house holds, consumables is not going to show any effect. It will remain constant. This will help our economy churn the money and revive the economy faster than expected. Even in lock down governments had allowed essential services and day by day as the situation improves the restrictions are going to be lift off.

Initiation Started for Farmers and SME's: Indian Government is very careful on health as well as economic front. The farmers have already been allowed for their activities, which is a very wise and timely decision. SME's are the Back Bone and base for the largest corporate houses in India. Their employment generation capacity is also very huge. Government's initiative to start the SME's is certainly a assurance of employ-ability and job security. These positive sentiments will also inspire larger company's to show their mettle once they are allowed to perform.








With Curtsy and Thanks:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India 

https://www.speakingtree.in/allslides/1a-446026
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IND